As the patch quickly approaches we goblins are in high stockpile mode. Getting ready for sales and hoping to make a fortune. As such we must make a plan to coordinate our preparations. When planning for a future event I make a generalized plan. As the date approaches I make additional more specific plans. This is where the problem has arisen for me. I find that my initial plan is falling far short of reality.
My generalized plan involved identifying what items I needed to stockpile and in what amounts I should stockpile them. Basically I just guessed. As it turned out I guessed wrong. Upon making a more specific plan I had to identify what items I wish to make, how many of each, and compare those numbers to my stockpiles. It was then that I realized that my estimates of how many of each item to stockpile was grossly small. In short, I don’t have enough mats stockpiled. Not near enough.
This is not the situation I wanted to be in this close to the patch. At this point I wanted to have completed most of my buying and have only the small details left to figure out. Because of my error in planning I am going to have to buy larger amounts of mats than planned. This means that I am also going to have to pay higher prices for them than I originally planned.
I am writing this post for two reasons. First, to work out the details for myself. Second, to warn others not to make the same mistake that I made. If you haven’t made a specific plan, do so now. Put a plan on paper. Write out what you want and figure out what you need to make it happen. Compare your plan to your current stockpile. You might be surprised at the numbers.
In the following I'm going to reveal my plan for patch day to you. I will show you what I did right and what I did wrong in planning. I will explain what I plan on doing and why I plan on doing it that way. Hopefully this will help you in creating your own plan. While the exact specifics might not apply to you or your server the reasons behind my decisions may help.
Crafting
While there are may ways of making gold post-patch I'm going to focus on crafting. I expect that selling crafted items will account for the majority of my profits. Crafted items fall under different categories. The ones I will focus on are “item enhancements” and “weapons/armor”. Each has potential for large profits.
Step 1: Targeting your customers
There are many different kinds of players in the game. They tend to fall into general categories that can be targeted for specific sales. They can be classified as Raiders, PvPers, Casuals, Collectors, PvEers, and many other groups. For the purpose of selling crafted items to these people I tend to classify them into three groups. These groups I call high, medium and low. I place them into each group based on the quality of their armor.
High: High level players tend to be the hardcore raiders. They have high item level armor and weapons. Gear tends to be BiS. They have the best gems and enchants on their items.
Medium: These players tend to be in casual raiding guilds. They generally have only a few pieces of maximum level gear. Most gear is epic quality but not BiS.
Low: Low level players are people who do not raid frequently. While gear may be epic it is not maximum item level. Generally purchase BoE items from AH or equip dungeon loot drops.
Each group has specific needs that can be targeted. People in the High group will not be purchasing crafted weapons or armor. They will, however, be quickly replacing their gear after patch release. Thus I will target this group with item enhancements. Specifically gems and enchants. Medium level players may be looking to buy a couple of pieces of crafted gear to upgrade their item levels. Item enhancements will also sell well to this group. Low item level players are the biggest group that will be buying crafted gear. This group can be targeted for PvE or PvP gear sales with higher item levels.
LFR and LFD
The Looking for Dungeon (LFD) and Looking for Raid (LFR) present us with excellent opportunities to make gold in this patch. The new dungeons (Hour of the Twilight Heroic) will require a minimum item level of 353. The new LFR (The Fall of Deathwing and The Siege of Wyrmrest Temple) require an item level of 372. This will not present a problem for the High item level players. Some of the Medium item level players may need to replace an item or two to get into the LFR. Low item level players will need to replace the majority of their gear to make it into the LFR. This is good news since the LFR is aimed at these people. While High and Medium item level players will be entering normal raid dungeons, LFR was designed for the casual players. Many of these people will find themselves undergeared after the patch release. Fortunately, we goblins, are here to help them gear up.
Step 2: Crafting the Items
At this point we have identified our target customers and identified what items they are going to be needing. Now we not only need to identify the quantities of items to craft we need to decide when to craft them. For example: Crafted weapons and armor will be needed immediately upon patch release by those wanting to get into LFR. As such we will also see low sales of enhancement items for this crafted gear. However we must also plan for an additional delayed demand for enhancement items from those running raids. This delay may take a day or two after the release before the demand hits the market. In addition we must also plan for the weekend sales following the release. We will see high sales on the day of patch release with decreasing demand in the following days. However, demand will spike again on Friday and Saturday with the weekend players needing new gear. If you don’t plan for the second spike in sales you will be losing potential profits to other sellers.
Some items can be crafted and stockpiled prior to the patch release. These include weapons, leg armors, spellthread, enchant scrolls, rare cut gems, and ilvl 378 PvE gear. The items that cant be crafted prior to the patch release are glyphs, PvP armor, and epic cut gems.
My crafting plan is as follows: I intend to make 2 pieces of all ilvl 372 PvP gear. Then craft additional pieces as needed. I will craft 5 each of rare cut gems and metas. Watch market before deciding how deep I want to go into rare cuts. Craft 1 each of the ilvl 365 weapons. Craft 1 stack each of leg armor, spellthread, belt buckles, shield spike, weapon chain. Craft more as needed. Closely watch market for demand of crafted ill 378 PvE items. Craft as needed. Craft 10 each of weapon and armor enchants. Craft more as needed.
It is important to remain flexible with crafted items. Never make too many. Remember that people will be upgrading some of their gear with 378 items with Justice Points. However, due to the cap they will be limited to only a couple of pieces. Watch closely to identify the greatest need on your server. Never make large quantities if you don’t have to. Keep mats in raw form, this will allow you to remain flexible and able to change your plan at a moments notice.
As you can see not only do I need to plan enough stockpile to make crafted items on patch day, I need to have enough of a stockpile to last me for at least a week of sales. Experience has taught me that crafting mats tend to disappear on patch day. Then when they do reappear on the auction house they are greatly overpriced. Thus I need to stockpile everything I need before the patch hits. How much more? Let me show you how much I will need. I will list it by profession.
Alchemy
Unfortunately Alchemy is going to be a wait and see approach. The big news is transmuting epic gems. However we do not have any information on the recipes or the mats needed. I have stockpiled large numbers of uncut rare gems, volatiles, and herbs in preparation. On my server flasks, elixirs, and potions are over-supplied and under-priced.
I think we are going to be disappointed with the transmutes for epic gems. I expect Blizzard to gate these with a cooldown of one every 3, 5, or 7 days. Also keep an eye on the Mythical Healing Potion market. Blizzard is buffing this potion from 21k to 25k heals this patch. The Mythical Mana Potion was also supposed to get a buff as well but this hasn’t appeared on the PTR.
Blacksmithing
I have already made large stockpiles of item enhancements belt buckles, shield spike, and weapon chain. This leaves me with needing to stockpile mats for the PvP gear once the patch hits. With my plan to make 2 of each item I will need to stockpile the following for just the first day.
Elementium Bar – 388
Volatile Water – 160
Volatile Fire – 134
With my plan to stockpile sufficient quantities for a week my goal stockpile is as follows
Elementium Bar – 1500
Volatile Water – 650
Volatile Fire – 550
I also have several stacks of Hardened Elementium Bars in preparation for the ilvl 397 recipes that will drop this patch.
Enchanting
Enchanting will not be getting any new recipes this patch. We will only be getting a new ability
Maelstrom Shatter. This does not mean that enchanting will not be profitable. Quite the opposite. With the large amount of new gear being implemented, plus the new ilvl for LFR, players will be begging for weapon and armor enchants. I have already stockpiled enchant scrolls in advance. I have 2k stacks of dust and 450 maelstrom crystals. My pre-crafting the scrolls show that I underestimated my need for shards and essences. I estimate I will need an additional 200 shards and 500 essences.
Many others bloggers are stockpiling large amounts of pre-crafted scrolls. Personally, I would advise against this. Pre-crafting lowers your mats on hand and limits your ability to change your crafting/posting plan as the market changes. Craft only what you need for the first day then craft more as needed. Stay flexible.
Engineering
Engineering is my go-to profession for pets. I don’t expect pets to sell so I will largely abandon engineering for the first week after patch.
Keep an eye on market for engineer crafted weapons and weapon enhancement items. On my server these items are over-supplied but your server may be different.
Inscription
Inscription will only be getting one new glyph this patch. It is
Glyph of Shadow. I will probably make a couple of these and try to sell them the first day. I don’t expect to be selling them after the first day due to competition driving the price below profitability. I will also be selling midnight ink and lions ink on the auction house. Midnight ink is required for the minor inscription research needed to learn the new glyph. Lions ink x3 is needed to craft the glyph. Otherwise I plan on abandoning the glyph market for the first week after the patch.
I do not recommend going too heavily into the ink market as these inks are also available from the ink trader vendor for a cost of one blackfallow ink
Jewelcrafting
The new jewelcrafting recipes are available for purchase from a vendor for 5 jewelcrafting tokens each. By the time the patch drops I should have enough tokens to purchase 30-35 recipes. With this patch jewelcrafters are given new PvP ring and necklace recipes. With my plan to make 2 of each on patch day I will need the following mats.
Inferno Ruby - 18
Ocean Sapphire – 18
Amberjewel – 18
Volatile Earth – 32
Volatile Water – 44
Volatile Life – 8
Volatile Air – 32
Volatile Fire – 8
Fortunately these mats are cheap and plentiful. Acquiring a large supply is not difficult.
Leatherworking
Leatherworking is one of the professions where I greatly underestimated the supply that I would need. Perhaps it was wishful thinking on my part seeing that Leather is on short supply on my server. The prices for leather are high and likely to go even higher. I already have a large supply of leg armor stocked up and will only need to craft more if they run out (not likely). For the first day of crafting I will need the following items.
Heavy Savage Leather – 576
Pristine Hide – 4
Blackened Dragonscale – 320
Volatile Fire – 328
Volatile Water – 160
Volatile Life – 160
Volatile Earth – 8
As you can see Heavy Savage Leather is a problem. In theory I would want 1200-1500 of these. In reality I'm not going to be able to come close. As the patch day comes closer I may have to re-evaluate my plan. Making only one of each and crafting replacements as necessary. At least until I run out of leather.
Tailoring
Tailoring is another profession where I underestimated the amounts of mats that I would need. To complete my first day plan requires the following.
Bolt of Embersilk Cloth – 304
Volatile Water – 82
Volatile Fire – 134
Volatile Air – 52
Unlike Savage Leather, Embersilk cloth is plentiful and cheap on my server. With the time remaining I should be able to bring my level of bolts up to where they need to be.
With Dreamcloth being required for the ilvl 397 recipes I am hesitant to use my highly limited supply to craft spellthread leg enchants. At this time I am unsure if I want to hold on to these to craft later or use them to build a stock of enchants. I could also keep my dreamcloth and just buy out the AH before the patch but this is extremely risky. A third option would be not to craft any spellthread and just take a wait and see approach. I have a couple of weeks to make a decision on this.
Note: None of these plans take into account the new item level 397 recipes that will be dropping. I intend to purchase these and craft these items as well. Thus I need to take this factor into account when planning my stockpiles.
As you can see I made some mistakes when estimating some of the supplies that I would need. Sitting down and putting my plan on paper helped me see exactly what I was going to need. While not everyone has all professions you should get some idea of what you may need from the above examples. Also make your plan according to your budget and server supply. If you only have a limited supply of gold you should pick and choose carefully which markets to go after. Never over-extend yourself and always keep some liquid gold on hand just in case. Also keep a close eye on the quantity of Volatiles you will need. The end numbers may surprise you.
CHAOS ORBS
In patch 4.3 chaos orbs will become unbound. These items are needed for crafting the old and new profession recipes. I expect that demand will exceed supply for the first week or two after the patch. To combat this I have contacted several people on my server. I have already made deals with them to buy their orbs on patch day. That way its easier for them and I get a guaranteed purchase. I even made deals with cross-faction friends to buy their orbs off the neutral auction house.
A note on prices: On the PTR chaos orbs were originally listed for 5000 gold each. After a few days they dropped to around 500 gold each. These prices lasted for a couple of weeks, now they are priced at approximately 50 gold each. I expect we can expect this general trend on the live servers.
LIVING EMBERS
Living embers are still a necessary material for crafting ilvl 378 gear. On my server embers are now dropping in price to 2k-3k gold each. There seems to be a fair amount of supply on the market. Check the prices of these on your server. If the prices are cheap enough you may want to buy these to flip after the patch. Once the patch hits few people will be raiding in Firelands. The supply of these will dry up for a few weeks after the patch while players try to experience the new raids. This should raise prices (temporarily) making flipping a good choice.
Warning: Don’t hold on to these too long after the patch. Once people get used to the new raids they will go back to farming old content and the prices will drop. Timing is everything in flipping.
THE END
I would like to apologize for the extra long post. If it counts for anything the original post I wrote was almost twice as long but I managed to edit it down by half. Hopefully you have gained a few good ideas from it that will help you with your own game plan. I still have more to say on this topic but I think I will save it for another post.
Thanks,
Jafo
