In my last post Beware: Speculation I covered the dangers of investing too heavily in unverified speculation. However that post was not meant to discourage investors from buying items in advance of the patch release. Experience has taught me that there are safer ways to invest for patch release. These safe ways will not make you massive amounts of gold but will provide you with good profitability with decreased risk. In this post I will cover the mats that I feel will increase profit for anyone regardless of the amount of gold they have to invest.
We will begin by looking at information provided by Blizzard and datamining. I will examine each of the professions and their upcoming recipes and explain the opportunities that any gold maker can capitalize on.
To understand how to profit on patch releases you must understand how patches are released and how the market responds to them. There are a great many variables but I will try to simplify them and only explain the basic and relevant part. There are five main parts to release of the patch and its effects on the market.
First: Long Term Pre-release
This is the stage we are currently in. Long term pre-release refers to the time leading up to the patch release usually measured in one to three months prior. At this time speculation is running rampant and only limited information is known. Market prices are low with little or no impact on auction house prices.
Second: Short Term Pre-release
This stage typically refers to the two to three weeks before release. Players have now obtained more verified information and speculation is at a minimum. High impact on the market as players begin to stockpile mats in preparation for release. Market prices begin to rise steadily and shortages begin to occur on the auction house.
Third: Release Day
The third stage is the release day for the patch. The market sees sharp increases and declines in certain markets. Most players avoid the auction house in order to explore the main content. Materials prices hit extreme highs as crafters try to bring products to market. Many servers auction houses run out of crafting materials.
Fourth: Short Term Post-release
This stage relates to the day after the patch and up to a week to ten days later. Players begin to return to the auction house in search for new gear. Sales of new craftable items peak at highest price. Massive increase in sales for enhancement items. Goblins begin listing stockpiled mats onto auction house at huge markup. Shortages on mats are still prevalent.
Fifth: Long Term Post-release
Long term Post-release refers to the time when the “rush” of buying and selling ends and the market begins to return to normalization. Depending on server size, number of crafters, and other variables this could begin a few days after patch release or a month after release. At this time the markets have an overabundance of crafted items on the auction house and crafting supplies are plentiful. Prices decrease on materials and finished crafted items. Market begins to return to normal.
As you can see the best time to buy mats is during the long term pre-release. This is when prices are at their lowest. Stockpiling the proper items now can show a 200%- 20000% return on you initial investment. The problem comes from identifying the “proper” items. As I explained it is also during this phase that information is insufficient and unreliable. However we can draw sufficient information to make an educated guess from past experiences. It is important to keep reevaluating during this phase and changing your buying as new information presents itself.
Next we will take a look at each profession and what new information has been given us at this time. This information may change in the near future so remember to keep an open mind. Be ready to change your game plan as needed. We are going to look at the profession recipes that have been datamined from MMO-Champion. Remember that nothing is guaranteed to make it into the final release so there is some risk involved.
BlacksmithingBlacksmithing: Bracers of Destructive Strength
Blacksmithing: Foundations of Courage
Blacksmithing: Pyrium Legplates of Purified Evil
Blacksmithing: Soul Redeemer Bracers
Blacksmithing: Titanguard Wristplates
Blacksmithing: Unstoppable Destroyer's Legplates
At this time all the patterns have the same materials required to create them. They are Hardened Elementium Bar x8, Volatile Fire x40, Essence of Destruction x4, Chaos Orb x3. Lets take a look at these. Hardened Elementium Bars require Elementium Bars x10 and Volatile Earth x4 to craft a single bar. Stockpiling elementium ores/bars and volatile earth is advisable. Due to the large number of volatile fire required I would recommend stockpiling large amounts of these. Since the location drop of Essence of Destruction is unknown, speculation raid drops, we will disregard this item. I do recommend stockpiling chaos orbs even though they will be unbound in the patch. Demand will most likely exceed supply at the beginning of the patch.
EnchantingEnchanting: Maelstrom Shatter
Now may be a good time to stockpile Maelstrom Crystals while the price is low. Expect the price to rise upon patch release.
LeatherworkingLeatherworking: Bladeshadow Leggings
Leatherworking: Bladeshadow Wristguards
Leatherworking: Bracers of Flowing Serenity
Leatherworking: Bracers of the Hunter-Killer
Leatherworking: Deathscale Leggings of the Storm
Leatherworking: Leggings of Nature's Champion
Leatherworking: Rended Earth Leggings
Leatherworking: Thundering Deathscale Wristguards
At this time all the patterns have the same materials required to create them. They are Pristine Hide x8, Volatile Fire x40, Volatile Water x40, Essence of Destruction x8, Chaos Orb x3. Pristine Hide can be purchased for 10 Heavy Savage Leather. Search your auction house for both items. Stockpiling both would be advisable. Again I highly recommend stockpiling both volatiles, fire and water, as prices will increase during the Short Term Pre-release and may be unavailable on or after patch day.
TailoringTailoring: Bracers of Unconquered Power
Tailoring: Dreamwraps of the Light
Tailoring: Lavaquake Legwraps
Tailoring: World Mender's Pants
At this time all the patterns have the same materials required to create them. They are Dreamcloth x8, Essence of Destruction x4. Dreamcloth is created by tailors. They are able to create 5 cloths per week on a cooldown. It takes Bolt of Embersilk Cloth x40, Volatile Life x30, Volatile Air x30, Volatile Earth x30, Volatile Fire x30, and Volatile Water x30. There is a fifth Dreamcloth recipe that is not on a cooldown that requires Bolt of Embersilk x8 and Chaos Orb x5. MMO-Champion has also datamined a sixth dreamcloth recipe Dreamcloth (Shadow) which has not yet been implemented in the game. It would require Bolt of Embersilk Cloth x8 and Volatile Shadow x30. It is unknown when or if this dreamcloth or volatile will be implemented into the game. Due to the one week cooldown on these items stockpiling is recommended only for tailors.
JewelcraftingVicious Ruby Choker (Inferno Ruby x5, Volatile Earth x8, Volatile Water x6)
Vicious Sapphire Necklace (Ocean Sapphire x5, Volatile Air x8, Volatile Fire x4)
Vicious Aberjewel Pendant (Amberjewel x5, Volatile Water x8, Volatile Life x4)
Vicious Amberjewel Band (Amberjewel x4, Volatile Water x8)
Vicious Ruby Signet (Inferno Ruby x4, Volatile Earth x8)
Vicious Sapphire Ring (Ocean Sapphire x4, Volatile Air x8)
Jewelcrafting: Stardust (Nightstone x1)
Blizzard appears to be updating the Jewelcrafted PvP items to an item level 377. These are learned through the Jewelcrafting Trainer for a few gold each. Expect a large number of these to hit the AH the first day. Prices will drop rapidly in one to two days. Not worth creating many of these due to overwhelming competition undercutting below mat prices. There will be 6 new epic gems released this patch with 66 new epic gem cuts. Visit Wowhead.com for a list of all the new gems and epic gem recipes. At this time there is too little confirmed information to begin investing heavily in the epic gem market. Unknown exactly how jewelcrafters will learn these epic gem recipes other than they will be available through the Tome of Burning Jewels. Recommend a wait and see strategy for Jewelcrafters.
Recipe: Transmute Deepholm Iolite
Recipe: Transmute Elven Peridot
Recipe: Transmute Lava Coral
Recipe: Transmute Lightstone
Recipe: Transmute Queen’s Garnet
Recipe: Transmute Shadow Spinel
While we do know that alchemists will be getting these transmutes we dont know where the recipes will come from. Nor do we know the materials needed for the transmute. Again alchemy must take a wait and see approach. Perhaps we will learn more as the release date draws near.
The information we are able to draw from what is currently available lets us know a few items which we should be stockpiling prior to patch release. Hardened Elementium Bar will be in great demand for blacksmiths. Pristine Hide will be in demand for leatherworkers. Tailors should begin to stockpile Dreamcloth. All volatiles will be in demand with the greatest demand for Volatile Fire and Volatile Water. Chaos Orbs will be unbound this release but demand will exceed supply. While we still have many weeks before the patch release hits this should provide players with idea of what to begin stockpiling now. These items are a low risk for investment with a decent return on investment.
Remember that this only applies to the information that we have received at this time. Continue to monitor the blogs, forums, and websites for new information. Be prepared to react to new information as it arrives.