Sinister Squashling Pet is BoE

Newsflash from the PTR

The Sinister Squashling pet is BoE

The Sinister Squashling pet is available during the Hallows End world event. It is awarded as either a drop from the Loot-Filled Pumpkin obtained from the holiday boss or available to be purchased from a holiday vendor for 150 tricky treats. This is a BoP (Bind-On-Person) pet in game. Until now...

As of the latest release of the PTR this pet is BoE. As such they can be sold on the Auction House. The going rate for the pet on the PTR AH is about 500 gold each. However the PTR AH tends to be an unreliable source to gauge sales prices in live realms.

You can learn these pets on you alts and then collect 1 extra per toon. My advice is to hold on to these pets to sell after patch 4.3 hits. Assuming that these being BoE on the PTR isn’t a mistake that Blizzard fixes before the patch is finalized.

I have checked other pets and found that they are not unbound. Onyxian Whelpling and Unattached Mr. Chilly are both still BoP. Hopefully this is the first attempt of Blizzards to unbind BoP pets in preparation for the combat pets available in the Mists of Pandaria expansion. I will continue to monitor the PTR and advise you of any changes.

Jafo vs Critical Goblin: Dominating the Glyph Market

This post is written in response to a series of articles written by Critical Goblin.

For those of you who haven’t read Critical Goblins blog let me explain. Critical writes a WoW gold making blog that focuses mainly on inscription and glyphs. I consider Critical one of the foremost experts in this market. His knowledge, experience and expertise in this market far exceeds mine. As such I have a great deal of respect for Critical and his opinions. I would strongly recommend his blog site to anyone interested in making gold by using inscription. His theories and ideas are well thought out and well presented.

Let me now explain how I approach making gold in the game. I have multiple alts with all crafting and gathering professions maxed out. Where Critical focuses on one market, I focus on them all. Critical approaches gold making as one using a sniper rifle and I approach it as one using a shotgun. Each method has its strengths and weaknesses. This post will discuss the differences in micro-focus vs macro-focus in a market. Specifically the glyph market.

I have been reading Criticals blog for some time now. There have been many times when I thought “Wow, I wish I had thought of that”. I have taken many of his ideas and applied them to my glyph market sales. I have also been able to take them and apply them to other markets as well. The gem market is a good example of this. Critical writes on how to obtain a dominate share of the glyph market with emphasis on controlling your competition. Check out his post Floors and Ceilings vs Solid Walls for details on his strategy.

Criticals blog has a large number of readers. His strategies are used by many. I know this because after he posts a new strategy I see my competition using it against me. When I read a post by a fellow blogger there are two things running through my mind; 1) How can I apply this theory to my own market strategy and 2) How can I defeat/defend against this strategy when used against me.

Criticals most recent post Halofield's Glyphs - Updated (3) got me thinking. This post shows the “Critical Theory” of glyph marketing at its best. He explains how to set ceilings and floors to maximize profits and how best to control the market. This strategy will aid you in defeating most sellers in the glyph market. However, the key is in the word “most”. This strategy will not work against me.

Let me explain. My gold making strategy is not based on a single market but upon all of them. As such I am immune to damage from the fluctuation of a single market. My overall gold making strategy is based upon what some have called the “Walmart” strategy in sales. I do not focus on the profitability of single sales (micro-focus) but upon the profitability of all sales (macro-focus) in a single market. Thus I can sell one glyph at 224 gold and five glyphs at 50 silver and still make a profit. Further I can suffer a loss in one market that is offset by a profit in another market and still increase my gold on hand. This allows me, as a macro-focus seller, to dominate a market in a way that a micro-focus seller cannot.

Simply put, neither the “glyph-wall” strategy nor the “ceilings and floors” strategy will work against me. I set a ceiling of 224 gold and a floor of 1 silver for my glyph posts with a 1 copper undercut. I scan and undercut multiple times a day. I don’t care if some of my glyphs are sold at a loss as long as all sales combined show some profit. However I am willing to sell at a loss if I deem it necessary to drive a particular seller out of the market.

This post is not meant to provide a forum for discussing my particular marketing strategy. It is meant to start a discussion on how to combat against it. How would you, as a seller, combat against this strategy in your market? What strategy would you use to defeat a seller who can sustain a long term loss in a single market?

Note: There are several strategies that my competitors have used to, temporarily, drive me out of a specific market. However I am not going to reveal them at this time as they might be reading this post. :)

Back To Basics

For the past couple of months I've been plagued by decreasing sales. You see, typically, I have had between 10k to 18k in sales a day. Lately my sales have dropped to 2k to 5k per day. Much of this is due to increased competition across all markets. Many more goblins joining in AH PvP. Some of it is due to decreased buyers. This is typical for the phase of game play we are currently in. Experience has taught us that buyers become more frugal just before a patch release. The good news is that they will start spending their hard earned gold after the patch comes out.

There really isn’t much we can do about competition. Many will get bored and leave the market in time. A few will stay for the long haul. Essentially we must learn to deal with the competition. Trying to stay ahead of our competition is key. We must continue to look for the next “new thing”. We can try to dominate a market but that only works in the short term. We can try to drive others out of a market by crashing it but that rarely succeeds. Though both options can drive people out briefly, it almost never stops a true AH goblin, they have seen it all before. The only real way to deal with competition is to get ahead of the pack, and stay ahead of it. This is easier said than done.

At this point in the game, pre-patch, we seem to be in a holding pattern. Nothing much new coming along that we can change to, Therefore we must consider that if we cant go forward then we must go backward. We re-evaluate old markets to find new sources of income. Older abandoned markets are prime for reevaluation. My advice is to check the recipe list on your crafters. Addons such as Auctioneer and TUJ will show what older items now sell for a profit. Now is the time to re-enter old markets.

Hallow's End has arrived...again

Once again Hallow's End has arrived. This is one of the most fun world events in the game. As Brewfest awarded Trinkets, Hallow's End awards Rings. This is a great opportunity to upgrade your low level rings to new ilvl 365 rings. Also included are a new sword and a plate helm. As always players will receive a Treat Bag dropped once per day in the boss fight with a possible reward of the The Horseman's Reins. This is a rare drop sought after by many players. Other possible drops from the bag include the Hallowed Helm and the Magic Broom mount. This year we have 3 new pets obtainable from the event. The first two (Little Wickerman and Feline Familiar) are purchased using the Tricky Treat currency obtained in the event and the third (Creepy Crate) obtained from a quest line. The Sinister Squashling pet will also be making a return appearance this year.

One additional change to take note in is that the quest A Mask for All Occasions has been altered. Originally this quest was required for the Hallow's End meta-achievement. However this quest was dropped from the meta due to the difficulty and rarity of the mask drops. Originally this quest could require two to four years to complete. The masks are now purchasable from a vendor in-game during this event. They are available for a cost of 2-5 Tricky Treats each. This will allow everyone to complete this once impossible quest.

Unfortunately Hallow's End does not provide us with much of an opportunity to make gold. Many people will be selling wand transformations for the achievement The Masquerade but this is not very profitable. Tanks and healers can sell their insta-queues for the daily boss fights. However the drops are all BoP and non-disenchantable. Weighted Jack-o'-Lanterns for the quest Check Your Head sell well on the AH for the first couple of days. Meta gems and enchant weapon scrolls may see a slight uptick in sales depending on the frequency of the helm and sword drops.

Below is the list of new items that drop from the boss fight Bring Me The Head of… Oh Wait to kill the Headless Horseman in Scarlet Monastery. Please note that all of the rings are “unique” and only one of each can be equipped per character.

Seal of the Petrified Pumpkin (Ring)

• +201 Strength
• +301 Stamina
• Improves critical strike rating by 142
• Improves haste rating by 121

Band of Ghoulish Glee (Ring)

• +201 Agility
• +301 Stamina
• Improves critical strike rating by 144
• Improves hit rating by 118

The Horseman's Signet (Ring)

• +201 Intellect
• +301 Stamina
• Improves haste rating by 144
• Improves hit rating by 118

Wicked Witch's Ring (Ring)

• +201 Intellect
• +301 Stamina
• +134 Spirit
• Improves critical strike rating by 134

The Horseman's Sinister Saber

• Sword
• Main Hand
• Speed 2.60
• 890 - 1652 Damage
• (488.8 damage per second)
• +103 Agility
• +290 Stamina
• Improves hit rating by 103
• Increases your expertise rating by 103
• Summon Pumpkin Soldiers to burn your foes

The Horseman's Horrific Helmet

• Plate Head
• 2833 Armor
• +371 Strength
• +411 Stamina
• Meta Socket
• Yellow Socket
• Socket Bonus: +30 Strength
• Improves critical strike rating by 218
• Improves hit rating by 171

The Horseman's Reins

Check out the WoW Insiders Guide to Hallow's End to get details on how to complete all the necessary quests for the meta-achievement. (Yes I know its the 2010 version but all the information is still accurate)

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Roadblocks in Patch 4.3

A recent comment to one of my blog posts made me reevaluate my plans for Patch 4.3. In my last blog Preparing for Patch 4.3 I recommended stockpiling mats to plan for the new crafting recipes coming out. However I forgot that Blizzard tends to throw us crafters a few curve balls. Fortunately my oversight was identified by Achieve from the Achieve Commitment Blog. The purpose of my post was to introduce the reader to the new recipes and show which mats were needed for them. One of the reoccurring items was Essence of Destruction. As this is a new item in the game without too much information on it I chose to ignore it for the purpose of my post. This was a mistake. As Achieve pointed out “IMO, the new epic recipes are not the strongest gamble. Expecting the need for a raid drop x 4 to craft them, and those drops not likely to fall out of the LFR... There will be a lot of stockpilers for those material, and no demand due to the lack of drops...”

Another comment by MoxNix of The Gold Mint blog on my post Beware: Speculation also caused me to think about the roadblocks that Blizzard tends to put into the game. The topic under discussion was referring to epic gems and Ghostcrawlers statements about the rarity of them. MoxNix made the comment “Of course since then we've datamined transmutes so maybe they've changed their minds about how difficult it will be obtain epic gems.” This caused me to take a step back and wonder if there was more to it then what we know.

If you haven’t been playing WoW for very long then you are not aware how Blizzard attempts to control the game by placing requirements, or roadblocks, into the game. These are used to control player progression. They can be controls as simple as reputation requirements or faction standing requirements to keep players from progressing too fast. You encounter these controls every day without realizing it. You require Rep with certain factions to buy items, you require valor points to obtain an important upgrade, you require achievements to get a shiny new title. These roadblocks are placed through the game for one reason. Control.

This is not meant to imply that these roadblocks are bad. They are not. In and of themselves they add variety and interest to the game. They provide new challenges and keep players returning to old content. The important part to remember is that they exist.

Its when we forget that these roadblocks exist is when we make mistakes in our planning. In my previous two posts I forgot this important fact. I forgot to include these roadblocks in my planning for the new patch. Fortunately the above two commenters, Achieve and MoxNix, caught my mistake.

Its not what you know, but what you don’t know, that will get you into trouble. Anyone remember patch 4.2? We all were prepared to start crafting the new gear the day of the release. I remember logging in planning to snatch up all the new recipes It was only then that I found out that Blizzard had put a roadblock out in front of us. It actually required us to run the new dailies for 28 days straight before we were able to unlock the recipes. Then after the obligatory 28 day daily grind we hit the second roadblock. One of the main materials required were Living Embers that only dropped in raids. I don’t know about your server but these are only just beginning to appear on my auction house. Both of these roadblocks were time sinks that prevented large amounts of crafted items from reaching the auction house.

Therefore, we must consider what time sink roadblocks Blizzard may implement in this patch. Let us consider the new profession recipes. With the exception of some PvP recipes, we don’t know how we will obtain these. What we do know is that Blizzard has announced that there will be profession recipes available in the new Darkmoon Faire. This gives us multiple time sink delays. If the patch is released when Darkmoon Faire is not running then we must wait for the faire. Once the faire arrives how will the recipes be sold? Will we be required to run dailies for tokens to purchase them like we were forced to run MC dailies? Will we be able to purchase them for gold? If they have limited of dailies for tokens will we be able to buy all the recipes in one week or must they be purchased over two or more months? Will there be a Darkmoon Faire reputation requirement to purchase some or all the recipes? Some recipes available at honored, some at revered, and the rest at exalted? Or will the recipes actually come from another source such as raid drops? We know that epic gems will have a chance to drop from raid bosses. We also know (from PTR datamining) that Alchemists will be able to transmute epic gems. What we don’t know is if they will have a cooldown or not. Will they have a daily cooldown (one transmute per day) or a weekly cooldown (one epic gem transmute every 7 days)?

Next lets discuss the limited materials roadblock. In addition to the timesink roadblock Blizzard likes to limit selected materials to slow or delay the production of crafted items. Many remember the rare and hard to get items previously. Materials such as Primordial Saronite in Wrath and Living Embers in Cata. There are also bind on person items that are eventually released to bind on equip status later. Items such as Frozen Orbs in Wrath and soon to be released Chaos Orbs in Cata. Unknown if tailors Dreamcloth will become unbound in this patch or not.

Last lets discuss the cost roadblock. Blizzard may place an extremely high cost on a recipe that is difficult for most players to obtain. An example is the tailor recipes that required dreamcloth to purchase or the blacksmithing recipes that cost hardened elementium bars to purchase. These items were extremely difficult to obtain when the recipes were originally released. We do know for certain (thanks to the PTR) that Blizzard has implemented this tactic for the PvP crafted armor recipes. Leatherworking PvP recipes will cost 80 Heavy Savage Leathers per recipe. New leatherworking PvP cloak recipes will be trainable for gold. Blacksmithing PvP recipes will cost 60 Elementium Bars, 4 Hardened Elementium Bars, and 15 Pyrium Bars per recipe. New Inscription PvP Relic Recipes will be trainable for gold. Jewelcrafting crafted PvP rings and necklaces will be trainable for gold. New Tailoring PvP recipes will be trainable for gold. As you can see Blizzard has implemented some control over how fast a player can receive these recipes. Blacksmithing and Leatherworking have high numbers of material cost for them. Tailoring recipes cost over 100 gold each. With 17 new tailoring recipes that requires an initial investment of 1700 gold just for the PvP armor recipes. In addition, once the recipe is learned each requires a large amount of mats to craft.

As you see Blizzard can and will place roadblocks in front of us. The trick is to be prepared, have a backup plan. Watch out for new information and change your buying/stockpiling habits as needed. Be prepared to wait it out if necessary. Try to think ahead and anticipate.

Some random thoughts wandering through my mind:

Has anyone else noticed that Living Embers and Truegold are not included in the materials required for crafting ANY of the new recipes? Does anyone else find that unusual? I have doubts that Blizzard would completely abandon them so soon after their release. I wonder if they might be required to purchase the new PvE recipes? Will the new Essence of Destruction be BoP or tradeable?

Preparing for Patch 4.3

In my last post Beware: Speculation I covered the dangers of investing too heavily in unverified speculation. However that post was not meant to discourage investors from buying items in advance of the patch release. Experience has taught me that there are safer ways to invest for patch release. These safe ways will not make you massive amounts of gold but will provide you with good profitability with decreased risk. In this post I will cover the mats that I feel will increase profit for anyone regardless of the amount of gold they have to invest.

We will begin by looking at information provided by Blizzard and datamining. I will examine each of the professions and their upcoming recipes and explain the opportunities that any gold maker can capitalize on.

To understand how to profit on patch releases you must understand how patches are released and how the market responds to them. There are a great many variables but I will try to simplify them and only explain the basic and relevant part. There are five main parts to release of the patch and its effects on the market.

First: Long Term Pre-release

This is the stage we are currently in. Long term pre-release refers to the time leading up to the patch release usually measured in one to three months prior. At this time speculation is running rampant and only limited information is known. Market prices are low with little or no impact on auction house prices.

Second: Short Term Pre-release

This stage typically refers to the two to three weeks before release. Players have now obtained more verified information and speculation is at a minimum. High impact on the market as players begin to stockpile mats in preparation for release. Market prices begin to rise steadily and shortages begin to occur on the auction house.

Third: Release Day

The third stage is the release day for the patch. The market sees sharp increases and declines in certain markets. Most players avoid the auction house in order to explore the main content. Materials prices hit extreme highs as crafters try to bring products to market. Many servers auction houses run out of crafting materials.

Fourth: Short Term Post-release

This stage relates to the day after the patch and up to a week to ten days later. Players begin to return to the auction house in search for new gear. Sales of new craftable items peak at highest price. Massive increase in sales for enhancement items. Goblins begin listing stockpiled mats onto auction house at huge markup. Shortages on mats are still prevalent.

Fifth: Long Term Post-release

Long term Post-release refers to the time when the “rush” of buying and selling ends and the market begins to return to normalization. Depending on server size, number of crafters, and other variables this could begin a few days after patch release or a month after release. At this time the markets have an overabundance of crafted items on the auction house and crafting supplies are plentiful. Prices decrease on materials and finished crafted items. Market begins to return to normal.

As you can see the best time to buy mats is during the long term pre-release. This is when prices are at their lowest. Stockpiling the proper items now can show a 200%- 20000% return on you initial investment. The problem comes from identifying the “proper” items. As I explained it is also during this phase that information is insufficient and unreliable. However we can draw sufficient information to make an educated guess from past experiences. It is important to keep reevaluating during this phase and changing your buying as new information presents itself.

Next we will take a look at each profession and what new information has been given us at this time. This information may change in the near future so remember to keep an open mind. Be ready to change your game plan as needed. We are going to look at the profession recipes that have been datamined from MMO-Champion. Remember that nothing is guaranteed to make it into the final release so there is some risk involved.

Blacksmithing

Blacksmithing: Bracers of Destructive Strength
Blacksmithing: Foundations of Courage
Blacksmithing: Pyrium Legplates of Purified Evil
Blacksmithing: Soul Redeemer Bracers
Blacksmithing: Titanguard Wristplates
Blacksmithing: Unstoppable Destroyer's Legplates

At this time all the patterns have the same materials required to create them. They are Hardened Elementium Bar x8, Volatile Fire x40, Essence of Destruction x4, Chaos Orb x3. Lets take a look at these. Hardened Elementium Bars require Elementium Bars x10 and Volatile Earth x4 to craft a single bar. Stockpiling elementium ores/bars and volatile earth is advisable. Due to the large number of volatile fire required I would recommend stockpiling large amounts of these. Since the location drop of Essence of Destruction is unknown, speculation raid drops, we will disregard this item. I do recommend stockpiling chaos orbs even though they will be unbound in the patch. Demand will most likely exceed supply at the beginning of the patch.

Enchanting

Enchanting: Maelstrom Shatter
Now may be a good time to stockpile Maelstrom Crystals while the price is low. Expect the price to rise upon patch release.

Leatherworking

Leatherworking: Bladeshadow Leggings
Leatherworking: Bladeshadow Wristguards
Leatherworking: Bracers of Flowing Serenity
Leatherworking: Bracers of the Hunter-Killer
Leatherworking: Deathscale Leggings of the Storm
Leatherworking: Leggings of Nature's Champion
Leatherworking: Rended Earth Leggings
Leatherworking: Thundering Deathscale Wristguards
At this time all the patterns have the same materials required to create them. They are Pristine Hide x8, Volatile Fire x40, Volatile Water x40, Essence of Destruction x8, Chaos Orb x3. Pristine Hide can be purchased for 10 Heavy Savage Leather. Search your auction house for both items. Stockpiling both would be advisable. Again I highly recommend stockpiling both volatiles, fire and water, as prices will increase during the Short Term Pre-release and may be unavailable on or after patch day.

Tailoring

Tailoring: Bracers of Unconquered Power
Tailoring: Dreamwraps of the Light
Tailoring: Lavaquake Legwraps
Tailoring: World Mender's Pants
At this time all the patterns have the same materials required to create them. They are Dreamcloth x8, Essence of Destruction x4. Dreamcloth is created by tailors. They are able to create 5 cloths per week on a cooldown. It takes Bolt of Embersilk Cloth x40, Volatile Life x30, Volatile Air x30, Volatile Earth x30, Volatile Fire x30, and Volatile Water x30. There is a fifth Dreamcloth recipe that is not on a cooldown that requires Bolt of Embersilk x8 and Chaos Orb x5. MMO-Champion has also datamined a sixth dreamcloth recipe Dreamcloth (Shadow) which has not yet been implemented in the game. It would require Bolt of Embersilk Cloth x8 and Volatile Shadow x30. It is unknown when or if this dreamcloth or volatile will be implemented into the game. Due to the one week cooldown on these items stockpiling is recommended only for tailors.

Jewelcrafting

Vicious Ruby Choker (Inferno Ruby x5, Volatile Earth x8, Volatile Water x6)
Vicious Sapphire Necklace (Ocean Sapphire x5, Volatile Air x8, Volatile Fire x4)
Vicious Aberjewel Pendant (Amberjewel x5, Volatile Water x8, Volatile Life x4)
Vicious Amberjewel Band (Amberjewel x4, Volatile Water x8)
Vicious Ruby Signet (Inferno Ruby x4, Volatile Earth x8)
Vicious Sapphire Ring (Ocean Sapphire x4, Volatile Air x8)
Jewelcrafting: Stardust (Nightstone x1)
Blizzard appears to be updating the Jewelcrafted PvP items to an item level 377. These are learned through the Jewelcrafting Trainer for a few gold each. Expect a large number of these to hit the AH the first day. Prices will drop rapidly in one to two days. Not worth creating many of these due to overwhelming competition undercutting below mat prices. There will be 6 new epic gems released this patch with 66 new epic gem cuts. Visit Wowhead.com for a list of all the new gems and epic gem recipes. At this time there is too little confirmed information to begin investing heavily in the epic gem market. Unknown exactly how jewelcrafters will learn these epic gem recipes other than they will be available through the Tome of Burning Jewels. Recommend a wait and see strategy for Jewelcrafters.





Alchemy
Recipe: Transmute Deepholm Iolite
Recipe: Transmute Elven Peridot
Recipe: Transmute Lava Coral
Recipe: Transmute Lightstone
Recipe: Transmute Queen’s Garnet
Recipe: Transmute Shadow Spinel
While we do know that alchemists will be getting these transmutes we dont know where the recipes will come from. Nor do we know the materials needed for the transmute. Again alchemy must take a wait and see approach. Perhaps we will learn more as the release date draws near.

In Conclusion

The information we are able to draw from what is currently available lets us know a few items which we should be stockpiling prior to patch release. Hardened Elementium Bar will be in great demand for blacksmiths. Pristine Hide will be in demand for leatherworkers. Tailors should begin to stockpile Dreamcloth. All volatiles will be in demand with the greatest demand for Volatile Fire and Volatile Water. Chaos Orbs will be unbound this release but demand will exceed supply. While we still have many weeks before the patch release hits this should provide players with idea of what to begin stockpiling now. These items are a low risk for investment with a decent return on investment.

Remember that this only applies to the information that we have received at this time. Continue to monitor the blogs, forums, and websites for new information. Be prepared to react to new information as it arrives.

BEWARE: Speculation

There is a great deal of speculation out now surrounding patch 4.3. As a player of the game for a number of years I have learned to take this with a grain of salt. However there are those out there that may not be as experienced, and jaded, about general patch speculation. This blog post is intended as a warning and a guide to those not well versed in patch speculation. It is not intended to discourage or demean any of the current speculation.

Patch speculation by bloggers and podcasters have been a mainstay of goldmaking for a long time. It provides the community with an opportunity to exchange views and ideas on how best to maximize and prepare for patch changes. If used properly it can be a valuable resource for the auction house goblin. However in the hands of the inexperienced goblin it can spell disaster. As the saying goes “experience is the best teacher”. Therefore, I will attempt to share some of my experience with you.

Speculation tends to be derived from one of three sources. These are rumors and quotes, datamining, and the public test realms (PTR). I will cover all three sources and explain what information can be reliably drawn from them.

Rumors and Quotes

Blizzard employees tend to occasionally “leak” certain information. This can be for the purpose of informing players of upcoming changes. Sometimes this information is leaked to “test the waters”. This is Blizzards attempt to gain player feedback and judge the viability of a proposed change. Many times in the past Blizz has leaked information and received negative feedback which caused them to change or remove a planned implementation.

A current example of this is an interview quote made by Greg Street (Ghostcrawler) of Blizzard. This involves the current speculation of epic gems planned release in the next patch. Essentially Mr Street advised that epic gems will have a chance to drop during raids. After defeating a raid boss each player will receive a “geode”. Inside each geode will be the chance of a player to receive an epic gem. This is in essence what was said. Now enter the speculation. What chance (percentage) will there be for an epic gem drop in a geode? Unknown. Will the gems be cut or uncut? Unknown. Will the epic gems be soulbound? Unknown. Will we be able to obtain epic gems from other sources such as alchemy transmutes? Unknown. Where will we get the jewelcrafting recipes for cutting the gems? Unknown. Will the recipes be Boe or Bop? Unknown. What was said in the interview is overwhelmed by what was left unsaid.

As you can see a simple statement made by a Blizzard employee can create a stir of speculation. Many times the statement can be taken out of context, misunderstood, or poorly worded. Prior to this interview many people speculated that epic gems may come from prospecting pyrite ore. This caused jewelcrafters and goldmakers to stockpile large amounts of this ore. Because of this quote many players have begun to dump all their stockpiled ore. Here is the problem. At no time in the interview did Mr Street ever say that epic gems would or would not come from prospecting. Both the stockpiling of ore and the dumping of the stockpiles are based on pure speculation. None of it is based in fact. This is the danger of speculation.

Datamining

Websites such as MMO-Champion are able to datamine (search) the PTR for information pertaining to new items in the game. This is one of the more reliable sources of information provided. However just because an item or recipe is datamined off the PTR it does not mean that the item will be implemented into the final release. An example would be the BoA leg armor datamined last patch. Use caution.

PTR

When a patch is nearing release it is put on the Public Test Realm (PTR). This gives players a chance to try out all or part of the new patch and gives the developers the chance to live test the data before final release. The key to remember is that nothing shown in the patch is guaranteed to make it to the live realms. The new patch goes live on the PTR approximately one to three months before the scheduled release date. You will see many changes to the PTR during this time. Use information obtained from this source with extreme caution. Things change and disappear from the PTR rapidly. However useful information can be obtained from the PTR in advance. An example of this would be the information in the last patch that Blizzard would be severely nerfing the vendor prices of Cata gems. Thus allowing JC's the opportunity to sell off their overstock before the patch went live and they lost money. A negative example of PTR speculation is seen in a previous patch. Due to a change in the alchemy transmute cooldown in the PTR it appeared that Blizzard was going to totally remove the transmute cooldown for Alchemists. Many people who stockpiled mats were disappointed when the final patch was released and they found the cooldown remained, only slightly altered.

My Advice

We all have heard stories of how some goblins have made a great deal of gold just after a new release or patch. Being able to recognize changes to the game is important. Being able to be one of the first to capitalize on them can be profitable. This creates the alluring draw of speculation. Trying to be the first to spot a new market. Being the first on your server to provide new products. The ability to make tens or even hundreds of thousands of gold in a day. It is very tempting. It can also be very disastrous. New and inexperienced auction house goblins can spend all of their gold reserves for patch day only to see their profits disappear because of incorrect information.

Stick to what you know. What sells pre patch will still sell post patch. Never invest more of your gold reserve in speculation than you can afford to lose. My comfort zone for speculation investing is 10 – 20% of my gold on hand. Some markets (glyphs, pets, recipes, etc.) will see a slight decline in sales just after the patch. These markets will rebound in a few days. Other markets (enchants, item enhancements, gems) may see a sharp increase just after release. Preplanning for increased sales in these markets by stockpiling mats would be advised.

You want to make guaranteed gold after the patch hits? There is one simple and surefire way to do it. Stockpile crafting mats. Which mats? All of them. Almost all new releases and patches include new recipes. Crafters will be creating all the new items as quickly as possible. This causes a shortage in crafting mats. So even if you are not a crafter yourself you can make gold by selling to those that are. Once the normal reserve of mats sell out on your servers AH you will see mats increasing in price from 300-1500% their normal selling price. So start buying mats now while the prices are low for greater profits later on. This includes herbs, ores, leather, volatiles, raw gems, living embers, etc.

(Of course this could all just be speculation on my part)